Movies

It was the worst Thanksgiving weekend in box office history.

November 27, 2022

Yes, Disney’s animated “Strange World” is a bomb – but without Netflix’s “Glass Onion,” the weekend would have been even worse.

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” is still number one and “Strange World” has plummeted, but here’s the big deal: The three-day Thanksgiving weekend box office hit $95 million. In 2o19, that weekend’s total was $181 million; in 2018, $216 million. For all of 2019, only four weekends fell below $100 million.

The last time a Thanksgiving weekend brought in less than $100 million was…ever? Almost 30 years ago, Thanksgiving 1994 saw a $94.5 million three-day weekend…when ticket prices averaged $4.08.

James Cameron’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” (Disney) opens December 16, and (as we’ve said all too often) it can’t come soon enough. But if we’ve learned one thing this year, an occasional huge hit won’t save what continues to be a struggling theatrical market.

Dominant distributor Disney will take the crown by a narrower margin for 2022. The cause is being helped by taking the top two spots on this holiday, normally a major achievement. But the asterisk that accompanies this “triumph” is huge.

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Disney) raised almost half of the weekend’s revenue with $46 million. That’s below average for Thanksgiving weekend as #1; many years saw two movies grossing over $40 million for the three days.

“Strange World”

Courtesy of Disney

At #2, Disney’s animated “Strange World” looks like an unprecedented disaster. Forget the disappointment of Pixar’s “Lightyear” in June, with its $50 million opening weekend. “Strange World” is under $19 million over five days on one of the best release dates of the year.

Its budget was reported between $130 million and $180 million. Marketing spend could exceed its ultimate indoor take (which, especially with streaming expected before Christmas, could be less than $40 million).

By anything other than 2018’s “Black Panther” standards (and theaters’ need for movies to exceed all expectations), “Wakanda” continues to perform well. In its third weekend, it stands at just under $370 million. It’s on track to hit $500 million domestically, with play until Christmas. That would compare to $700 million previously (closer to $850 million at today’s prices), but would also position it as No. 2 for the year – at least until the opening of ” Avatar”. Decent results, but today’s theaters need more than that.

Theaters would have loved a wide release for “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.” Netflix did not publicly release any revenue as per its usual practice. Sources suggest they have whispered estimates of $9.2m for three days, $13.3m so far. The studios have the resources to make accurate estimates themselves, without independent verification. What our sources say — about $8.75 million for three days, $12.5 million for five — might be a more accurate estimate.

It’s in 696 theaters, mostly single screens, for an ARP of over $12,500. It’s excellent. It was good enough for No. 3, and a boon for theaters playing with a deal that would have seen theaters pay far less for movie rentals. Too bad it only lasts a week. It remains to be seen whether for the streamer there is no method to madness.

GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY (2022) Kate Hudson as Birdie, Leslie Odom Jr. as Lionel and Kathryn Hahn as Claire. Cr: Courtesy of NETFLIX

“Glass Onion: A Mystery at Daggers Drawn”

“Glass Onion” has broad appeal, especially to older viewers (35+). Its success likely weighed on other films hoping to attract adults. Among these was “The Fabelmans” (Universal), playing in slightly fewer theaters but attracting only about a quarter of the viewership. Expectations for its appeal were lower than normal for a Spielberg film, but it could end up making only half of last year’s disappointing “West Side Story,” which hit $38 million. It’s disconcerting.

Two more disappointed wide openers. Sony is releasing independently produced Korean War drama “Devotion” starring “Maverick” co-star Glen Powell. Made for $90 million, it earned 10% for five days. Military-themed movies often perform better; the date could have been an issue, but the general malaise is more likely to be glaring.

Standing above the storm remains “Black Adam” (Warner Bros. Discovery). DC Comic star Dwayne Johnson had a more than believable run, ranking #6 and dropping just 27% with his PVOD release last week. It amounts to 163 million domestic dollars.

Searchlight’s “The Menu,” again with older appeal, dropped 42% in its second weekend to hit No. 5 with $5.2 million. While not a stellar result, the film could stay afloat until Christmas.

The weekend accounted for 52% of 2019 unadjusted gross. Supported by the first two weekends of “Wakanda,” the rolling four-week comparison to three years ago still sits at 92%.

The Top 10 (Friday-Sunday)

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) Week 3; Last week #1

$45,900,000 (-31%) in 4,258 (-138) theaters (total 5 days: $64,000,000); PTA (average per venue): $10,780,000; Cumulative: $367,671,000

2. Strange World (Disney) NEW – Cinemascore: B; Metacritic: 65; East. budget: $135-180 million

$11,900,000 at 4,174 theaters (5-day total: $); APT: $2,581; Cumulative: $18,600,000

3. Glass onion (Netflix) NEW – Metacritic: 81; East. budget: 40 million dollars (+ significantly higher acquisition cost)

$(est.) 8,750,000 in 696 theaters (5-day total: est. $12,500,000); APE: $12,572; Total: $ (est.) 12,500,000

4. Devotion (S0ny) NEW – Metacritic: 66; East. budget: $90 million

$6,000,000 in 3,405 theaters (total over 5 days: $9,000,000); APT: $1,762; Cumulative: $9,000,000

5. The map (Spotlight) Week 2; Last weekend #2

$5,200,000 (-42%) in 3,228 (+17) theaters (total 5 days: $7,344,000); APE: $1,611; Cumulative: $18,670,000

6. Black Adam (WBD) week 6; Last weekend #4; also on PVOD